Mortgage new deal expert analysis, inventory pressure how to break – Sohu Finance 哈尔滨工业大学学报

Mortgage new deal expert analysis, "inventory" pressure how to break? Sohu finance xinhuanet.com Beijing February 3rd new media news (reporter Fu Guangyu Liang Tianyun) the day before, the central bank and the CBRC jointly issued a notice, again reducing non purchase City mortgage "threshold", triggering hot. The industry believes that the new deal to "inventory" as a starting point, to stimulate demand for housing has played a role, but the policy effect still needs market testing. Experts suggest that in addition to lower mortgage threshold, the future should be explored in the urbanization construction, stimulate home demand two aspects at the same time, many departments should work together, to deepen the system reform, fiscal and tax preferential policies in areas such as play combination punches, further resolve to stock pressure, ensure the stable development of macro economy. For some users and rising interest rates are still "speculation" 1, the central bank and the CBRC jointly issued a notice that in the implementation of the restriction measures in the city, the first suite of commercial loans on the principle of the minimum down payment ratio of 25%, the country can be floating down 5%, two suites of commercial loans down payment ratio is not less than 30%. Before the Spring Festival, the "good" new deal, many netizens still said, "just looks beautiful."". The total 1629 for hundreds of games, even with the lower down payment, the remaining loans would be astronomical. What’s more, under the circumstances that the monthly disposable income of each family has not changed significantly, the amount of the loan is established, and the bank can not issue more loans to the buyers’ families, even if it can, it is beyond the acceptable category. A bank for personal credit staff to reporters calculations: in a total of 2 million yuan house as an example, according to the calculation of the loan for 20 years, Shoufu ratio decreased, reduced from 500 thousand yuan to 400 thousand yuan, but with the rise of the loan amount, the total amount of interest will increase by about 60 thousand yuan for the month. An increase of nearly 700 yuan (matching interest repayment). Centaline chief analyst Zhang Dawei believes that, fundamentally, the fundamental problem of real estate supply and demand remains to be solved, and for buyers, the interest rate of loans has not been reduced, the down payment pressure has decreased, but the loan pressure has also increased. From a psychological point of view, it will stimulate a wave of demand into the market, the policy effect remains to be seen in the market. Directional stimulus needs to promote the development of the industry stability, macroeconomic experts pointed out that the recent convening of the central economic work conference, to resolve the real estate inventory has been listed as one of the five major tasks of economic and social development. The relaxation of the loan policy is also intended to "go to inventory" to ease the structural pressure of the real estate market, as well as the potential risks of the financial system, stabilize macroeconomic. Zhang Dawei told reporters that in 2016, China’s macroeconomic operation is still under great pressure. Last year, the national fixed asset investment growth is slow, mainly due to the growth of real estate investment fell by a big margin, and real estate development and investment growth continued to decline since last year, housing prices overall purchase will slump, making the local land revenue fell sharply. Chinese Academy of social sciences data show that in 2015 the total inventory of commercial housing is expected to reach 3 billion 996 million square meters, Xianfang sale area of 426 million square meters, if

房贷新政来袭 专家解析“去库存”压力怎么破?-搜狐财经   新华网北京2月3日新媒体专电(记者付光宇 梁天韵)日前,央行和银监会联合发布通知,再次降低非限购城市房贷“门槛”,引发网友热议。业内人士认为,房贷新政以“去库存”为出发点,对拉动购房需求起到一定作用,但政策效果仍需市场检验。  专家建议,除降低房贷门槛之外,未来还应在推进城镇化建设、刺激自住需求两个方面进行探索,同时多部门应共同发力,在深化制度改革、优惠财税政策等领域打出“组合拳”,进一步化解“去库存”压力,保障宏观经济平稳发展。  月供和利息上升 部分网友仍“望楼兴叹”  央行和银监会1日联合发布通知称,在不实施“限购”措施的城市,首套房商业贷款原则上最低首付款比例为25%,各地可向下浮动5%,二套房商业贷款首付比例调整为不低于30%。  对春节前出台的“利好”新政,不少网友仍表示“只是看上去很美”。对于动辄二三百万的总房款,即便降低了首付,余下的贷款也是天文数字。更何况,在每个家庭的月均可支配收入并未发生明显变化的情况下,可贷款额是既定的,银行无法向购房家庭发放更多贷款,即便可以,也超出了可承受的范畴。  一位银行负责个人信贷的工作人员给记者算了一笔账:以一套总价200万元的房子为例,按贷款20年计算,首付比例降低后,由50万元降低到40万元,但随着贷款额的上升,利息总额会增加约6万元,月供增加近700元(等额本息还款方式)。  中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,从根本上看,还有待解决房地产供需的根本问题,而对于购房者来说,贷款的利率并未降低,首付压力降低,但贷款压力也随之增加。从心理层面看,会刺激一波需求入市,政策效果还有待市场观察。  定向刺激需求 促进行业发展稳定宏观经济  专家指出,不久前召开的中央经济工作会议,化解房地产库存已经被列为经济社会发展的五大任务之一。此次贷款放松政策,同样意在“去库存”,缓解房地产市场结构性压力,以及金融体系的潜在风险,稳定宏观经济。  张大伟告诉记者,2016年,我国宏观经济运行仍面临很大压力。去年全国固定资产投资增长缓慢,主要是受到房地产开发投资增速回落幅度较大的影响,且房地产开发投资增速去年以来持续下滑,房企整体购地意愿低迷,使得地方土地出让收入大幅回落。  中国社科院数据显示,2015年商品住房总库存预计达39.96亿平方米,现房待售面积4.26亿平方米,如果想完全消化,需要23个月。民生证券研究院的研究表明,从结构上看,2015年年底一、二、三线城市库销比分别为8.15、10.23和25.58,三线城市房地产库存过剩问题最为严重。  上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭表示,此次政策调整的出发点很明确,就是鼓励刺激一部分需求,有针对性地推进“去库存”,稳定住房消费市场,保障宏观经济平稳发展。“首付门槛降低,有利于刚需和部分改善性需求入市,尤其是对于那些收入不低、但积蓄不多的年轻人和年轻家庭,能够起到一定刺激作用,更快地释放需求。”  此外,分析人士认为,降首付对于一些大城市周边区域总价不高的存量房,甚至三四线城市的库存,能够起到一定消化作用,也会促使部分一线城市打工者回家乡购房。  城镇化和自住需求将成“去库存”主要方向  接受采访的多位专家及业内人士表示,对于“去库存”的方式,单靠降低房贷门槛作用有限,应着力在推进城镇化建设和刺激自住需求方面进行突破。此外,建议各个相关部门协同一致多措并举,在深化制度改革、优惠财税政策等方面打出“组合拳”。  天津财经大学丛屹教授认为,自从2012年以来,房地产市场进入供求结构调整周期,这个周期与以往都不同,特点是以自住需求为主,投资性需求回归理性。此次房贷新政是在“去库存”背景下,逐步放松政策环境的一个延续,未来还应在推进城镇化发展、聚集产业人口、完善公共资源分配以及扶持自住需求等方面努力。  “去库存是个系统工程,目前仍存在较大压力,尤其是三四线城市和部分二线城市,这就需要多个部门参与落实,从深化户籍制度改革、支持农民工进城买房、财税政策优惠等方面发力,比如在非限购城市免除营业税、加快推进贷款利息抵扣个税试点工作,从而进一步释放需求。”杨红旭说。  对于未来房地产行业领域走势,丛屹表示,房地产开发商由于“去库存”压力较大,应借政策环境利好之势降价促销,所以房价并不会大涨,而银行方面也不会在房地产领域过量放贷,最后受益的还是购房者。建议理性看待新的行业周期,不必过分担心房价上涨,同时审慎选择投资。  作者:付光宇 梁天韵来源新华社)相关的主题文章: