Good HuJiao is expected to continue the relay-kisstudou

Good HuJiao relay journey is expected to recently, HuJiao rebound continues, however, caused by the financial attributes of the broad market is fading, and the supply and demand and capital "taking over" the rally is expected to continue to promote hujiao. Red market nears its end, the financial attribute slowed over the weekend, the real estate market tax cut brought red market commodity market, a number of varieties including steel, iron ore, glass, PP, benefit, industrial sector collective meteoric rise, HuJiao main contract by potential breakthrough stage highs in late December last year. However, in the bear market pattern, the effectiveness of good news is always rapidly fading, and Tuesday’s red money market has been showing a trend of coming to an end. Since the real estate policy and rubber fundamentals directly related degree is not large, it is expected that the future of rubber itself supply and demand pattern and market sentiment will re dominate the trend and rhythm of rubber price. Heavy truck showing bottom signs, the industry is expected to pick up in January, domestic heavy truck sales of 37 thousand, down 8%. Although affected by the overall economy of domestic economy and the slowdown in investment, heavy truck data is still a negative growth, but has improved. First, the decline in January was 10 percentage points larger than in December last year. Second, monthly declines are on a quarterly basis. In the first quarter of 2015, the monthly growth rate of heavy truck sales was -34%, rising to -30% in the two quarter, and three and fourth quarter were continuously rising to -24% and -16%, while the sales decline in January 2016 had shrunk to single digits. As a result, the current sales of heavy truck market have not deteriorated further than in 2015, or at the bottom of the recession cycle. In addition, from the demand for heavy trucks, there is also expected growth in procurement. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the state, there are more than a month, the eastern 11 provinces and cities will fully implement the "national fifth stage motor vehicle emission standards", and next January heavy diesel vehicles must comply with the country’s five standards. Referring to the process of promoting the national standard four, heavy truck market is expected to usher in the growth of purchasing demand again, or help the heavy truck market phased out the bottom, the industry sales are expected to pick up. The supply of the coming season, the inlet pressure weakened after the domestic areas full stop cutting, Southeast Asia also from the north to the south into the rubber defoliation period, especially the planting density and yield the largest most concentrated in southern Thailand, is expected to fully stop cutting at the beginning of March, the three quarter before the new gum supply will be tight. With the Thailand 100 thousand tons purchasing and storage and the three major exporting countries, it is expected that the supply will be lighter during the cut off period this year. Last year from 7 to November, China’s rubber imports increased by 44% compared with the same period of history, which has a certain relationship with the peak production period and the devaluation of the rmb. In the recent two months of import growth slowed in January, natural rubber imports 220 thousand tons, down 26%, with a slight increase of 2.4%. If the RMB exchange rate remains stable, the import pressure will be reduced if the RMB exchange rate remains stable. The present price spreads, the long and short faces are in confrontation, the rubber season price is observed after the Spring Festival (spot to Thailand No. 3 tobacco slice gum as the target), futures lead the spot.

利好接力 沪胶有望继续前行   近期,沪胶反弹势头延续,不过,由金融属性带来的普涨行情正在消退,而由供需面和资金面“接棒”推动的沪胶反弹行情有望延续。   红包行情渐入尾声,金融属性转淡   上周末,房地产市场税费下调为商品市场送来了红包行情,包括螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、PP在内的多个品种受益,工业板块集体翻红上扬,沪胶主力合约也借势突破去年12月下旬的阶段高点。不过,在熊市格局中,利好消息的效用总是快速衰减的,周二红包行情已显现渐入尾声的态势。由于此次房地产政策与橡胶基本面的直接关联度并不大,预计后市橡胶自身的供需格局和市场情绪将重新主导胶价的走势和节奏。   重卡显现触底迹象,行业有望回暖   1月,国内重卡销售3.7万辆,同比下降8%。虽然受到国内经济整体景气度不佳和投资放缓的影响,重卡数据依然是负增长,但是已有所改善。首先,1月的降幅较去年12月大幅收缩了10个百分点。其次,月度降幅逐季减少。2015年一季度重卡销量的月均增速为-34%,二季度上升至-30%,三、四季度更是连续抬升至-24%、-16%,而2016年1月销量降幅已收缩到个位数。因此,当前重卡市场的销售情况较2015年并没有继续恶化,或在构筑衰退周期的底部。   此外,从重卡需求来说,还存在采购量增长的预期。按照国家有关规定,还有一个多月东部11个省市就要全面实施“国家第五阶段机动车污染物排放标准”,而明年1月之前重型柴油车均须符合国五标准。参考国四标准推进的过程,重卡市场有望再次迎来采购需求的增长,或有助于重卡市场阶段性步出底部,行业销售有望回暖。   供应淡季来临,进口压力减弱   继国内产区全面停割之后,东南亚也自北向南进入橡胶落叶期,尤其是种植密度最大和产量最集中的泰国南部,预计在3月初将全面停割,而三季度之前新胶供应都会偏紧。加上泰国10万吨收储和三大产胶国的出口限制计划,预计今年停割期内的供应将更加清淡。   去年7―11月,我国橡胶进口量较历史同期大幅增长44%,这与该时段处于产胶旺季和人民币出现剧烈贬值均有一定关系。而近两个月进口增速明显放缓,1月天然橡胶进口量为22万吨,环比降26%,同比略增2.4%。在产出低谷期即将到来的背景下,若人民币汇率继续平稳,则进口压力会减轻。   期现价差收缩,多空呈对垒之势   观察春节后的橡胶期现价格(现货以泰国3号烟片胶为标的),期货引领现货并先于现货上涨,出现了阶段性的价差收缩。期现套利出现利润空间,或吸引产业空头再次布局。但是从持仓数据来看,多头并未认输,多空对垒之势出现。春节后,前20名主力多头席位的增仓幅度整体大于空头,而上周四以来,主力多空在5月、9月两个合约上的增仓幅度极为接近。总体来看,主力多空持仓比值自0.75上升至0.77,在空头长期占据主动的沪胶合约中,多头的主动性开始增强,资金情绪偏空的情况有所改变。   从技术形态来看,向上突破已经确立,可考虑逢回调背靠5、10日均线布局多单。   (作者单位:徽商期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: